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Fall TV Predictions: Which Shows Should You Get Attached To?

The September Fall TV new show rollout is a bit like Christmas. It’s an exciting time when people come together looking forward to merriment, focusing a little less on their diets and dreaming of the wonderful experiences coming their way. In this case, all the exciting new shows that have been heavily promoted by all the networks. However, sometimes the reality of it all is that the experience rarely lives up to all they hype and all you get are terrible memories you can’t erase.

Leading up to September we put together our dream watch lists:

Letter

And so September begins; with viewers hoping to find shows worth working into regular rotation, and programs, on some level, hoping to be the new Lost (without the “controversial” ending), the next Friends/The Big Bang Theory/How I Met Your Mother, or at least not notoriously remembered as one of the worst TV shows ever – remember that time they tried to make a show out of the cavemen Geico commercials? Yeah, that was terrible. Though not as terrible as the show where men dress like women to get jobs, which was cancelled after two episodes.

With so many shows, and so many inevitable bombs laying before me, I have to wonder, “Before I get attached, are there any indications that a show, only two weeks in, is already setting one foot in the grave?”

First I wanted to take a look at shows that made it to round two to set a baseline against those that didn’t.

  • The casualties of 2012 left me with four main shows: Nashville, The Mindy Project, Chicago Fire and Revolution. So what was their pre-show and initial airing buzz?

1

  • When I look at the volume of people expressing intent to view these shows, I notice two leaders in The Mindy Project and Revolution.

2

  • It seems to me there are a few things that can kill a show, and I broke them into four categories: dissent toward the cast, sense of humor, plot and writing, and the simple, “I don’t wanna.”

The Mindy Project:

3

The greatest complaint for this show was people not identifying with the humor or just not intending to watch, but it’s pretty small in volume, representing only about 1.7% of the total conversation.  The low numbers for the dislike-for-the-actors category say the cast is a hit because, obviously, everyone wants to watch someone they want to be friends with.

Revolution:

4

Revolution had more overall volume than The Mindy Project and in both cases people seemed to like the cast, or at least not have an aversion. But with Revolution, the dissent was more toward the premise and writing.

So now for the good stuff – how does this compare to shows that got the axe?

5

The heavily lined graph shows us – there were a fair few. The nice orange spike on the right correlates with Eva Longoria’s Ready for Love which only lasted a few episodes. Not to be outdone, Made in Jersey was reported cancelled after two episodes. By and large, there is less volume here. If we bring in an intent to view overlay:

6

 

When it comes to Save Me, Partners, How to Live with Your Parents (for the Rest of Your Life) and Stars Earn Stripes, they barely registered. But for those shows that got the most viewers – Go On, The New Normal, Malibu Country and 666 Park Avenue – what drives viewers to stop watching?

7

To give you an idea of volume here, the dislike across these four categories represents 4-7% of the total conversation, as opposed to our 1.5% with the shows that were not cancelled. So for this season?

8

Initial buzz seems to be around Sleepy Hollow, Brooklyn Nine-Nine and The Blacklist. Is intent to view following the same pattern?

9

Yep. Viewers seem to be excited about Agents of Shield, Sleepy Hollow, Brooklyn Nine-Nine and The Blacklist, and excitement is building for The Crazy Ones and The Michael J Fox Show. Those that don’t seem to be getting the love? Well, Super Fun Night doesn’t yet have the numbers, and it hasn’t even aired yet. Others like Dads and Mom may fade away. But what about those that are earning chatter? What’s their staying power?

10

For Agents of Shield and The Blacklist, their dissent indicators are both below the 4% mark that indicated potential cancellation last year. Sleepy Hollow and Brooklyn Nine-Nine are both flirting just above that 4% threshold.

And so it looks like I’ve got to make some time on my calendar for Agents of Shield and The Blacklist, but the jury is still out on Sleepy Hollow and Brooklyn Nine-Nine. But in the case of Dads, Mom, and potentially more to come…sorry, but I think it’s best we see other people.

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