February 10, 2016
/ by James Rubec
Donald Trump might just win. National social polling Cision has conducted shows that with New Hampshire’s win, Trump is unstoppable.
South Carolina’s primary is only two weeks from now, and to beat Trump, Republican candidates need to, in some cases, increase their share of voice by more than 500 percent to beat the billionaire.
Cision accurately predicted that both Trump and Bernie Sanders would win the New Hampshire primary and lose the Iowa caucus.
At this time, unless the underdog Republican candidates step up their game by speaking on topics that mobilize Republican voters, Trump will win the nomination. Trump could flame out, but our data indicates continued momentum.
With split votes in South Carolina, Florida and other southern states, Trump will continue to win primaries with less than 40 to 50 percent share of voice nationally.
This isn’t inspiring for a general election and neither is Trump’s campaign organization. Campaigns are won by teams and can take months to build state infrastructure that can successfully drive voters to the polls.
Trump’s campaign team is front loaded, with more staffers working in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire than the rest of the country combined. As an example of the competition he may face, Hillary Clinton has 24 people publically listed as working in Nevada, Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has 12 and Trump has one.
Before Trump could win a general election, his campaign would need to learn how to organize at this scale.
Good talking points help brands navigate around near death, but sometimes speakers slip. And slip Rubio has in the debate and on the campaign trail since, flubbing lines and appearing visibly flustered in the face of standard criticism.
During this slide he’s lost 55 percent share of voice. Cision’s analysis has also found that more than 25,000 social media commenters have referenced Rubio as a robot or robotic in the past three days.
Like the water bottle incident in his response to President Obama’s 2013 State of the Union address, this is the type of negative series of moments that kill a candidacy.
An aged-insurgent candidate from the U.S. Senate rises through a straight-talking inspirational campaign to compete against the well-monied consensus establishment favorite.
This candidate wins New Hampshire, in a landslide, sending alarm bells through the establishment candidate’s team and the party in general.
Most everyone expected Sanders to win last night, but winning by 20 percent over Clinton is an upset comparable to McCain beating George W. Bush in 2000’s New Hampsire primary.
Both Sanders and Trump beat our prediction based on data collected between February 3 and February 6. This indicates their momentum has accelerated since our last analysis on Saturday evening.
Want to follow all of Cision’s 2016 presidential election coverage? Check out these posts and see our social monitoring in action!
The national trend is in Sanders’ favor and, based on a collection of more than 3 million social messages between February 6 and February 9, he again holds 56 percent share of voice to Clinton’s 44 percent.
This trend does not bode well for Clinton in Nevada, which holds its caucus on February 20. If the state held its caucus tomorrow, Sanders would win in another landslide. He currently holds an 18-point lead on Clinton based on social share of voice. Polls in Nevada show that Clinton’s lead is narrowing rapidly, Sanders now holds 30 percent support to Clinton’s 50 percent.
Recouping 18 points isn’t impossible. Sanders could flub like Rubio or Clinton could have an inspirational moment on the campaign trail that bolsters her support.
However those are big ifs, and luck can’t be relied on to win the presidency. The only core issue that Clinton leads on nationally is access to abortions. She is losing on foreign policy, the economy, Black Lives Matter and even equal pay for women.
Unless she finds new messaging on these core topics, she will lose the nomination to Bernie Sanders.
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