February 19, 2016
/ by James Rubec
This Saturday is the Nevada Democratic caucus, and Bernie Sanders, the Democratic senator from Vermont, is continuing to keep momentum after his win in New Hampshire two weeks ago.
We predicted on February 10 that Sanders would win Nevada. and nothing has significantly changed.
In the last seven days, opposed to the measurements on February 10, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has increased her share of voice by only 3 percent, from 44 percent on February 10 to 47 percent on February 17.
Subsequently, we predict Sanders to win with a margin of victory of 7 points or more in the final vote. This analysis is based on more than 155,000 social messages collected between February 11 and February 17.
The change becomes more stark when comparing Sanders’ most popular hashtag (#FeelTheBern) against Clinton’s #ImWithHer, #Hillary2016 and #Clinton2016. In Nevada, Sanders’ supporters used the hashtag #FeeltheBern 12,024 times between February 11 and February 17. Clinton’s supporters used all three hashtags only 3,671 times.
Donald Trump holds a 20 point lead on his nearest GOP rival in terms of national share of voice, which we have used to predict the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary.
He also holds nearly the same lead over Sanders; in fact, only when you combine Clinton’s and Sanders’ social conversations is it a competitive comparison.
Trump holds 36 percent share of voice, Sanders holds 20 percent, Clinton and Senator Ted Cruz are tied at 17 percent, and Senator Marco Rubio has 10 percent.
There are simply fewer people sharing messages about the Democratic presidential nominees.
Trump has on average 200,000 people share social messages about him every day; meanwhile Clinton and Sanders each have fewer than 100,000 authors on a normal day.
This analysis is based on a collection of 26 million social mentions authored by more than 8.5 million Americans in the past week.
Come back next week for our national state-by-state analysis of the potential winners and losers of Super Tuesday being held on March 1!
Photo courtesy of the Bernie Sanders campaign
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